The National and Provincial Preferences of Uruguayan Voters, 1999-2015

Abstract

 Until 1999 Uruguayans could not vote for different parties at national and sub-national levels (nineteen departamentos); electoral law forced them to vote for the same party. Since 1999 there have been four electoral cycles (1999-2000, 2004-5, 2009-10 and 2014-15) including national and sub-national elections. This allows comparing voters’ national and sub-national party preferences. Results show that national preferences influence sub-national preferences heavily, but do not determine them. Voting patterns at the two levels do not vary at random, but systematically. During the last decade the observed changes between national and sub-national levels are almost always biased against the governing party, the left wing Broad Front (Frente Amplio, FA). This happens because most voters see a party system divided in halves: the FA on the one hand, the old, founding parties (Blancos and Colorados) on the other. Thus, many Blanco and Colorado voters choose strategically at the sub-national level, not according to their first preferences, but according to which of the parties of their preferred “half ” is more likely to defeat the FA.