Does political proximity matter to Russia’s oil preferential partners? The impact of the conflict in Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26851/RUCP.33.16Keywords:
Oil market, political proximity, Russia-Ukraine conflictAbstract
This article examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the trade of oil, specifically focusing on changes in Russian oil exports and its main partners. It highlights the use of trade restrictions as a measure to discriminate against countries that oppose Russian actions and explores how political align- ment influences trade exchanges. Such regional military conflict has a specific impact on energy inputs demand and oil supply. Therefore, we propose empirical measures related to political proximity among countries. The results indicate that commercial restrictions and, mainly, political alignments condition Russian oil exports, molding the contemporary international political economy and reinfor- cing the role of oil as a strategic asset in international relations.
Downloads
References
Aalto, P. et al. (2014). Russiaʼs energy relations in Europe and the Far East: Towards a social structurationist approach to energy policy formation. Journal of International Relations and Development, 17, 1-29. https://doi. org/10.1057/jird.2012.29
Alesina, A., Weder, B. (2002). Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid? American Economic Review, 92(4), 1126-1137. https://www.aeaweb. org/articles?id=10.1257/00028280260344669
Alt, J., Frieden, J., Gilligan, M., Rodrik, D., Rogowski, R. (1996). The Political Economy of International Trade. Comparative Political Studies, 29, 689-717.
Babina, T., Hilgenstock, B., Itskhoki, O., Mironov, M., Ribakova, E. (2023). Assessing the impact of international sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Balmaceda, M. M. (2018). Differentiation, materiality, and power: Towards a po- litical economy of fossil fuels. Energy Research & Social Science, 39, 130- 140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.052
Beaumont, P., Jones, S. (2022). Russia has invaded Ukraine: What we know so far. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/ russia-has-invaded-ukraine-what-we-know-so-far.
Bown, C. P. (2010). Chinaʼs WTO entry: Antidumping, safeguards, and dispute settlement. In Chinaʼs Growing Role in World Trade (281-337). University of Chicago Press.
Busch, M., Reinhardt, E. (2003). Developing Countries and GATT/WTO Dispute Settlement. Journal of World Trade, 37(4).
Caruana, L., Rockoff, H. (2007). An elephant in the garden: The Allies, Spain, and oil in World War II. NBER Working Paper Series. doi.org/10.3386/ w12228.
Chao-Fong, L., Belam, M., Sullivan, H. (2023). Russia-Ukraine war: Hungary signs new energy deals with Russia; UN tally of Ukraine civilian dea- ths approaches 8,500 – as it happened. The Guardian. https://www. theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/11/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukrai- nian-pm-arrives-in-canada-gershkovich-wrongfully-detained-says-us
Comtrade. (2023). UN Comtrade Database. https://comtradeplus.un.org/.
Dajud, C. U. (2013). Political Proximity and International Trade. Economic & Politics, 25(3).
Davis, C. L., Bermeo, S. B. (2009). Who files? Developing country participation in GATT/WTO adjudication. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 1033-1049.
Ellis-Petersen, H. (2022). Indian leather companies accused of enabling Russia’s war effort. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ dec/30/indian-leather-companies-russia-war-effort.
Ellis-Petersen, H. (2023). Russia is more united than ever, Putin tells allies after failed mutiny. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ jul/04/russia-united-says-putin-failed-mutiny
Estanislau, L. (2022). Venezuela confirma que EUA suspenderam sanções para negociar retomada de produção de petróleo. Brasil de Fato. https://www. brasildefato.com.br/2022/05/18/venezuela-confirma-que-eua-suspende- ram-sancoes-para-negociar-retomada-de-producao-de-petroleo
European Commission. (2022). Ukraine: EU agrees to exclude key Russian banks from SWIFT. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/ en/ip_22_1484
European Commission. (2023). Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/ sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-mili- tary-aggression-against-ukraine_en#overview-of-sanctions-in-place
European Council. (2022). Russia’s aggression against Ukraine: EU adopts sixth package of sanctions. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-re- leases/2022/06/03/russia-s-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-adopts-sixth- package-of-sanctions/
European Council. (2023). EU sanctions against Russia explai- ned. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanc- t i o n s / r e s t r i c t i ve - me a s u r e s - a g a i n s t - r u s s ia - ove r- u k r a i ne / sanctions-against-russia-explained/
ENTSOG (2022). European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas. https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/map
Farrell, H., Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape state Coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42-79.
Hajjaji, D. et al. (2023). Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow cuts oil supply to Poland – as it happened. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/ world/live/2023/feb/25/russia-ukraine-war-live-china-role-as-peace- maker-just-not-rational-says-biden.
Henderson, J., Moe, A. (2016). Gazprom’s LNG offensive: a demonstration of monopoly strength or impetus for Russian gas sector reform? Post- Communist Economies, 28(3), 281-299. doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2016.1203206
Heussaff, C. et al. (2023). Russian crude oil tracker. Bruegel. https://www.brue- gel.org/dataset/russian-crude-oil-tracker
Hughes, L., Goldthau, A. (2020). Saudi on the Rhine? Explaining the emergence of private governance in the global oil market. Review of International Political Economy, 28(5), 1410-1432.
International Energy Agency. (2024). Indian Oil Market. https://www.iea.org/ reports/indian-oil-market
Jordan, C., Husbands, S. (2023). Europe’s Not Buying: The Impact of Lost Gas Markets for Gazprom and Russia. The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. https:// www.r usi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ europes-not-buying-impact-lost-gas-markets-gazprom-and-russia
Keohane, R., Moravcsik, A., Slaughter, A.-M. (2000). Legalized Dispute Resolution: Interstate and Transnational. International Organization, 54(3), 457-488.
Khan, M. Z. I. (2020). Is Voting Patterns at the United Nations General Assembly a Useful Way to Understand a Country’s Policy Inclinations: Bangladesh’s Voting Records at the United Nations General Assembly. SAGE Open. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244020961117
Klare, M. (2008). Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy. Henry Holt.
Koshiw, I. (2022). G7 countries and Australia to cap price of seaborne Russian oil. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/03/ g7-countries-and-australia-to-cap-price-of-seaborne-russian-oil
LaBelle, M. C. (2023). Energy as a weapon of war: Lessons from 50 years of energy interdependence. Global Policy, 14(3), 421-580. https://onlineli- brary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13235
Lawson, A., Borger, J. (2022). Fears grow over oil price as Opec+ agrees to bigger than expected output cuts. The Guardian. h t t p s : / / w w w. t h e g u a r d i a n . c o m / bu s i n e s s / 20 2 2 / o c t / 0 5 / fears-grow-over-oil-price-as-opec-agrees-to-cut-output
Leftwich, A. (2015). What is politics: The Activity and its study. John Wiley & Sons.
Leon, D. S., Larratt-Smith, C. (2022). Leveraging weakness into strength: How neo-patrimonial oil-producing countries survive economic crises. Journal of International Relations and Development, advance online publication, 9 September. doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-022-00271-1.
Makortoff, K. (2022). Opec agrees to ramp up oil production, but fails to exclu- de Russia. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/ jun/02/opec-agrees-to-ramp-up-oil-production-but-fails-to-exclude-russia
Mansfield, E. D., Mutz, D. C. (2009). Support for Free Trade: Self-Interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out-Group Anxiety. International Organization, 63(3), 425-457.
Manson, V. W. (2006). Oil and Gas Pipelines Map. National Geographic. https:// education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/europe-map/
Muzaffar, M., Yaseen, Z., Rahim, N. (2017). Changing Dynamics of Global Politics: Transition from Unipolar to Multipolar World. Liberal Arts and Social Sciences International Journal, 1(1), 49-61.
NASDAQ. (2023). Brent Crude Oil Prices. https://www.nasdaq.com/ market-activity/commodities/bz-nmx/historical
Oltermann, P., Beaumont, P., Sabbagh, D. (2022). European leaders bla- me sabotage as gas pours into Baltic from Nord Stream pipelines. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/ nord-stream-1-2-pipelines-leak-baltic-sabotage-fears
Rossbach, N. (2018). The Geopolitics of Russian Energy Gas, oil and the energy security of tomorrow. FOI. https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/ FOI--4623--SE
S&P Global. (2023). Sanctions against Russia – a timeline. https://www.sp- global.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ sanctions-against-russia-8211-a-timeline-69602559
Schmitter, P. C. (1965). Reflexões sobre o conceito de política. Revista de Direito Público e Ciência Política, 8(2), 45-60. https://hml-bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rdpcp/article/download/59651/57996
Seelke, C. R. (2023). Venezuela: Overview of U.S. Sanctions. Congressional Research Service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/ pdf/ IF/ IF10715#:~:text=In% 20 May% 202022% 2C% 20 the% 20 Treasury,existing%20joint%20ventures%20in%20Venezuela
Statista Research Department. (2021). Gazpromʼs shareholder structure as of December 31, 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/273267/ shareholder-structure-of-gazprom/
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2023). What countries are the top producers and consumers of oil? https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq. php?id=709&t=6
UK Government. (2022). UK ban on Russian oil and oil products. https://www. gov.uk/government/publications/uk-ban-on-russian-oil-and-oil-products
UK Government. (2023). Guidance UK ban on Russian oil and oil products. https://www.gov.uk/government/pu- b l i c a t i o n s / u k - b a n- o n- r u s s i a n- o i l - a n d - o i l - pr o du ct s / uk-ban-on-russian-oil-and-oil-products
UNCTAD. (2022). Review of Maritime Transport. United Nations
Voeten, E. (2013). Data and analyses of voting in the United Nations General Assembly. In Routledge Handbook of International Organization
Voeten, E., Strezhnev, A., Bailey, M. (2009). United Nations General Assembly Voting Data. Harvard Dataverse. doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ.
Walt,S.M.(2022).LiberalIllusionsCausedtheUkraineCrisis.ForeignPolicy.https:// foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/ukraine-russia-nato-crisis-liberal-illusions/
Wilson, J. D. (2019). A securitisation approach to international energy politics. Energy Research & Social Science, 49, 114-125. doi.org/10.1016/j. erss.2018.10.024
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
